A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
IF THIS WAS MAY.............We'd Be All Over This..... Caribbean Convection
That' dark area in the sea of reds and golds is convection. Visible in many ways, but kind of fun to use an out of the box method here in Mid April. The Caribbean is coming alive........day by day.
On June 12th, 1994 the world was rocked with a news story that went on to dominate the news cycle for the following year. It's a date and a time many will not forget. OJ Simpson a much beloved football player that broke many records in college and won the Heisman Trophy in 1968 for his incredible run at USC in the heart of LA was suddenly the suspect in his wife Nicole Simpson and her friend Ron Goldman's death! OJ went on after college to fame playing for the Buffalo Bills and infact had become quite the football hero, to many, as well as a public figure who had acted and was popular on TV. Everyone knew OJ and when you heard the term OJ it stood for a football hero, not that orange stuff in a glass in somewhere that comes from Florida.
OJ running from the police in a panic.
Making a White Ford Broncos suddenly popular ..
..and eventually the chase ended.
Much discussion on TV
Familes argued over OJ's innocence or guilt!
All the elements of a love triangle.
A husband's rage and revenge.
A husband set up to take the blame.
Glitzy California story and went on and on.
Then the trial........
This is a blog about what happens when an Iconic News Story collides with a hurricane in the process of intensifying and no one is paying attention to the hurricane. The OJ Trial after OJ being on the run in his Bronco that much of the whole nation watched in the early days of Cable News..... went long into a murder trial on the news every day, leaving everyone with the memory of the staying "if gloves don't fit, you must acquit" and all of America was watching live! People watched the trial, they sat at home with friends watching the trial, everyone having their own opinion arguing it out at work or at school or pretty much anywhere you went someone would ask what you thought of OJ.
And then on October 3rd, 1995......
........FINALLY.....the verdict was in.
And, then people cheered or screamed foul play!
People argued.
People celebrated.
Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico.......
...during an epically busy hurricane season.
There was your typical October storm.
September 27, 1995
Everyone is watching OJ
A storm forms down near the Yucatan.
You know those slow forming storms.
Weak, nothing much.
Crosses the Yucatan. Reforms and heads North.
You have all been there.
Think Michael.
Nothing until it was something.
On October 2nd it entered the GOM
It intensified into a hurricane.
Nothing much to look at yet.....
..compared to the trial of the century.
(at that time..)
Cable News vs a young TWC
Even local news was following the trial.
On October 4th Opal became a Cat 4.
160 MPH
Understand had this been any other busy year with an O storm in the Gulf of Mexico, nowhere to run and trapped and obviously making landfall somewhere it would have been a lead story on the news. Everyone would have been glued to their local weather or TWC and yet many were not..........
It did not make landfall at it's peak and it was a marginal Category 3 at landfall, but as many of you know when a hurricane traversed the Gulf of Mexico and had been strong enough to have 150 MPH winds it usually packs a strong storm surge that's just as important as if it was a Cat 2, Cat 3 or even a Cat 4! And in this case Opal ran like OJ for the end zone far inland creating flooding problems way past the point of storm surge and wind impacts. Many complained they were not properly warned or didn't know how bad it would be and yes obviously anyone who obsesses on hurricanes was out shopping at the store and preparing for a hurricane landfall. But, the general public in the path of the hurricane.... well many missed the Intensification and wrote it off as a late season mild hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. That was a big mistake for many caught unaware ....caught up in the drama of OJ and the trial, and again the verdict was read on October 3rd the day before Opal made landfall.
Florida Storms Continue. Tornadoes. Flooding. Storms Moving UP Into Carolinas. Hurricane Season 51 Days Away... EPAC Month Away. Early Named Storms in May???
You can find these radars live on Mike's Weather Page
I-95 in GA and Carolinas gonna be messy today
Coastal storms on the beach if you like wild weather.
Fronts still moving down........
...often spin up early season named storms in May.
Something to think on.....
Let's start here..........
...from far away and wide view.
You can see what we're watching today.
Chasing, tracking, discussing.
Let's go in closer
A stream of moisture is zooming up from the Yuke
Crashing head on with a strong spinning Low.
Tornadoes, Flooding, Spring Storms.
Note the triangular appearance on this image...
...on the line still down by FL
And the moisture feed from SE into E Coast!
Note the little impulses down in the EPAC
They want to spin....
...but winds coming in still from the West....
Eventually we should have an EPAC season
On time?
May 15th?
Definite Maybe
???
Over by Africa......
the usual early season LOW wave like features form
Turning pink and purple on the Mimic
You have a rich, moist feed down in the EPAC
Even a few pink purples
And from the YUKE up to NW FL
Moisture laden energy feeding the storms.
That'll move up into the Carolinas today.
Virginia also.....
Speaking of pinks and purples,.
Too low, too soon.
Mother Natures Way of Saying.
Next Up Hurricane Season.
Coming Soon ....
And yes I'm going to remind you.
51 Days Til Hurricane Season
Less than a stack of cards.
With fronts still moving down towards Florida then going flat, flatter and flatter as we get closer to May it's likely, possible tho not probable but worth thinking on that we could see early named storms especially in that region of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once the Yucatan gets into play, it's something to pay attention to as it often births baby tropical storms in May that crash eventually into the West Coast of Florida somewhere depending on the flow and the geometry of the pattern!
Playing around with the phone.
Nespresso in one hand the phone in the other.
Thinking out loud.
Thoughts on EPAC below.
So.........
Prioritize
Get a plan
Figure it out now.
Way easier than trying to later
When there's some sudden TS Warning
upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
And, you're all "what the heck it's only May?!?!"
Don't be that person.
Diamonds may be a girl's best friend........
...BUT good shutters & a generator may be your best friend!
Did you Enjoy the Eclipse? Did You Watch?? Will You Travel to the Next One??? 55 Days Til Hurricane Season...........
Not Your Momma's Eclipse Blog Pic!
My brother sent me this picture of the partial eclipse in Florida, it's an awesome picture and of all the pics I saw of the eclipse it's one of the best I've seen. And, it brings up the question if you saw the eclipse but it wasn't a total eclipse and you didn't see the diamond on the side or the full blown Corona effect did you still really see the 2024 Eclipse??
Obviously this is THE OMG Corona pic ppl post....
Total Eclipse of the Sun.
Very cool.
Saw it once, truly awesome.
But if a tree falls in the forest question....
...answer is the tree still fell.
Maybe someone heard it but didn't see it?
The Eclipse for me was very nice moment in time and made me stop and think on life on many levels as well as "wonder" how if at all it changes anything? If it's all truly scientific.... why does it seem so OMG WOW spiritual to many who watch who sound literally as if they are having an orgasm screaming while viewing this very normal scientific event that is forecast centuries in advance by astronomers and astrologers .... how can we be so in awe? Centuries ago when the sky went dark I get it and it looked like the end of the world. Did people even see the diamond and corona while hiding in the cave?? I wonder...
If the sky gets dark, even for 5 minutes, it's obviously going to make animals feel weirded out and perhaps explains the reason people insist they feel "spacey" and a bit "dizzy and lightheaded" ... well if they are very in tune with their body they do. A few people asked me at 5 pm "so when exactly is the eclipse?" and I just started thinking "do they live under a rock" because with all the hoopla how did anyone not know when the elipse was happening? Someone who was at 95% said they didn't notice anything different, and granted the sun is so bright it was still bright out and yet in other places at 75% and 85% people told me they "I saw the difference in the quality of the light" and I believe them. I could see it in Raleigh. The light looked different, there was a dimmer effect in place and the edges weren't as sharp and yet it was brighter than dusk where it's actually darker.
I talked to my friend who is in town, always have good conversations with him about life and things such as eclipses. I watched the light. Took a walk outside and smiled at the little eclipse, crescent shaped looking shadows the huge tree made and watched the crescent moons dance in the breeze. Kind of cool, not so super surreal as the Corona that I saw before and yet once the Corona is gone and the moon has moved on the Sun comes back and it's kind of as if nothing happenend.
Kind of like when we have a tornado warning in NC and everything goes wild for a few minutes with downdrafts and a possible sighting of a cloud that produced a funnel cloud about 3 miles away and then the sun comes out and it's gone as if it never happpened.
Hurricanes are long events that literally change your life forever and being in an eye wall for five minutes or 20 minutes sitting out in lounge chairs in the driveway watching birds fly around and high level clouds racing across the top of the eye is mind blowing and not a few minutes of "wow" or even "OMG" in my mind, in my mind's eye as I've been in the eye of storms ... and I've watched a total eclipse. All awesome, but different. Each eye is different and yet almost all solar eclipse coronas look the same.
According to Google.
This is why this happens during an eclipse.
Well Up North trees I don't think Palm trees.
Maybe??
Never knew this til the 2017 eclipse.
This was joyful, playful and amusing.
Little small crescent moons projected on the pavement.
My distant cousin who lives nearby...
...did the same thing.
What is in our genes?
Apparently a lot is generic.
Love of nature, weather, life. Photography for sure.....
Total Eclipse Over USA Today - Look at Hurricane Seasons From Same Saros Cycle Eclipses. Will the Eclipse Change Your Life? Yes? No? Maybe? Hurricane Season 2024 ???? Time Will Tell.....
The subject of the day is The Eclipse that crosses theUSA, totality going from Texas to Niagra Falls. Remember there is an eclipse path that crosses most of the East Coast in varying stages but not everyone gets totality! This image is supposed to be 2017 but who knows, they mostly look the same. Lunar Eclipses often are colored differently and sometimes in Miami we get a Red Lunar Eclipse due to Saharan Dust in the atmosphere. So let's look at these eclipses and past hurricane seasons. Many people ask if there is some correlation and I think that often is in the eye of the beholder, some dots that connect and others do not. I'm just going to show a few and let you think on it a bit as Hurricane History is my specialty; my passion and where my mind always goes when something unusual happens!
So today's eclipse tracks, in it's entirety, across the Eastern Pacific, ALL of the USA gets some and all of the Caribbean and most of the Western and North Atlantic. Obviously Texas gets this eclipse in full force, as does the New Madrid Fault Line (home of the Big Daddy of US Earthquakes) and tracks across Washington DC, New York City, Boston and hits all the popular ports of call ...including Baltimore still a bit dead in the water waiting to get rid of that ship that took out that bridge.
No I'm not alluding this to the Eclipse, I'm just saying it's a thing going on as we all get ready to party hardy or hide in our caves from the Solar Eclipse. I'm staying in Raleigh. One of my best friends is due in soon so that's kind of cool and love talking eclipses and other things with him so looking forward to that. And, it'll look "different" though not really dark and I'm fine with that. As I said in a previous blog I have seen a total eclipse and many partial ones, if the Northern Lights were for sure going to show up over Tennessee or Virginia tonight I'd definitely chase that!
So let's take a look back at the last few solar eclipses in this particular cycle known as Saros 139. Eclipse cycles repeat over time and I'm only going to go back to the 1930s, though it's worth remembering there was one in 1861 over the East Coast and the Atlantic. The 2017 eclipse over the USA was not part of this cycle but Saros 145, you can Google all this if you are really interested; astronomers and astrologers pay much attention to these cycles as well as historians looking for some tidbit that explains something about what may or may not have happened in the following year or two. It's been pointed out often online that the 2017 eclipse was before the very strong, deadly Atlantic Hurricane Season that brought us Harvey, Maria, Irma and many other hurricanes.
2/25/1952
1952 Hurricane Season - Weak El Nino
Happening in the world from Google.
I did check the Pacific. It was busy. Always busy...
1970 Eclipse!
3/7/1970
A very similar track to this one.
A bit further to the East over the USA
Covered the Caribbean
1970 Hurricane Season - Moderate La Nina
Famous for Hurricane Alma in May
Celia in Texas....
It was quiet for a while and then busy.
From Wikipedia...oh look Vietnam War
Also campus unrest across the US
Adding in some more as some of us remember vaguely..
3/29/2006 Eclipse
E ATL, Africa, Europe, Russia, Asia
2006 Hurricane Season - Weak El Nino
Dubai, Belarus
Let's look at the Oscars for fun!
On a personal note....
Shortly after the eclipse I began looking into other jobs, even though I had a job I loved near where I lived it had few benefits and I was at a point where I had to think "what's in this for me" and did I really want to make a big change in my life. A few months later, after all the various interviews and rigamarole that goes with Academia I left the cute City Library and took a job with Touro College on Miami Beach a fairly long commute but it took me back "home" to Miami Beach where I lived a long time and it had easy access to the ocean 2 blocks away and I was able to hang out at the beach while any storm named or otherwise was nearby or approaching :) and Cuban Coffee on Lincoln Road and Victoria's Secrets on Lincoln Road and the College had security at the front desk so not anyone could just walk in or park their huge boat out in front of it thus blocking the entrance the way the ship in Balitmore is doing today. It was a good move, lots of benefits, paid tutiion for whichever kids were old enough to go to college there and at the same time I moved from one house to another nearby. These were huge decisions based on practicality, moving on and I didn't have to worry someone would send an elephant or boxes of packages to the old house where things often got stranger than the library.
Seriously it was a very big year for me, and no the eclipse did not go over either of my houses or job locations, but changes were made and they led to other changes down the road and here I am in Raleigh. Maybe those changes were connected to the Eclipse and maybe not in any way were they connected. Everything in life is timing...
Soooooooooooo I ask you........
What changes do you want in your life today?
What changes would you make even if they were a huge upheaval?
I gave up a sure thing for a new college location that may not even make it past the first year!
Back up plan was I'd move to NY and get a job in Touro NY if I wanted to make that move.
Thanks for anyone here who spent the time to read my "off season" blog when I talk on things not always connected to eye walls and cones or even ice cream cones! A lot on my mind today and at the same time trying to go with the flow and enjoy whatever happens.
Soon we will get deep into Hurricane Season discussion but we are not there yet, and the various factors that will or won't happen over the next 6 weeks will dictate what type of hurricane season we will have vs a forecast that might not verify in ways.
If we continue having frontal boundaries moving down far enough it is possible we could have something form down in the Caribbean near the Yucatan and work it's way North IF all the various elements work out and come together properly. But the long, lingering frontal boundary in the GOM or off the East Coast of Florida can and often does set us up for a May named storm. Let's look at Alma lastly and while it's often mentioned there are few that did what Alma did ...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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